I had originally planned to carefully walk through the software stack from the lower layers towards the upper layers. However, after reading the public comments and private email stemming from my last software post, that plan has gone out the window! Folks want to jump directly to the applications, and since the holidays are nearing I thought I would get in the spirit and give people what they want. So let’s talk applications. To make it all that much more interesting, I’m only going to start the story…
Let me confess to being pragmatic. First, while device convergence is a very popular analyst topic, it is not relevant to *every application* on *every device* in the medium term. Second, it is not a question of *if* Internet access from mobile/consumer devices will exceed the desktop/laptop, but rather a question of *when and how soon* … this goes to the direction of future software development. Third, discontinuities provide opportunity, and disruptive technology generally starts out as “not good enough” along the old value proposition on day 1. All in all, I am super careful about extrapolating from the early days of new opportunities.
Here are some of the devices I used in the last few days:
- x86 laptop running Windows XP
- Atom netbook running Ubuntu
- iMac running MAC OS X
- iPod Touch
- Blackberry
- Polar heart rate monitor, Canon EOS 50D camera
- Apple TV, GPS navigation, alarm clock (with USB port), Android phone
- Programmable thermostat
I am certainly not “the typical joe” but the above list provides a good starting point with respect to diversity when thinking about convergence.
Here is a sample of the applications I used:
- Firefox, Safari, Chrome, Internet Explorer (mobile)
- Financial Times, New York Times, CNN, EE Times, The Register, Yahoo Finance, BBC Weather, Wikipedia, Amazon, Blogs, BBC iPlayer, Club Penguin (with my daughter;)–> (Flash 10)
- Microsoft Outlook, PowerPoint, Excel, Open Office
- WordPress, LinkedIn, Gmail, YouTube
- Skype, iTunes, iPhoto, iTunes app store (over 2 billion downloads!), Android market, Google docs,
- Chess on iPod Touch, Internet Radio on iPod Touch,
The items with links have ARM-related information behind them and the key (if not only) impediment to web pages is Flash 10 (for now).
If you consider the devices, the apps, and how they will mix in the future you will quickly see there is nothing magic in a particular processor architecture. Rather it is about diversity, creativity, and innovation (think: ARM basics). How will we reach convergence when folks invent cool things faster than they converge (think: inventing the future)? The one common thread is the movement of connectivity towards the center of the value proposition (think: everything with a screen, everything without a screen). Things like JITs and interpreters are indeed specific to a processor architecture, but again it is port once and unlock billions of architecture independent lines of code. This type of middleware is a key leverage-through-abstraction point. If porting were an issue, say hello to billions of units shipped per quarter – sound attractive?
I don’t think the future of innovation singularly lies in a shrunken down laptop, where the innovative bit is the pink color (that was done by Motorola years and years ago) – we’ll hear enough about these on the ARM side in just a few weeks. The medium-term future is a lot more exciting with lots left to invent!
Over to you for the second half of the story…
Sir, Finally I can login your blog, very good.
By: Wan ZongShun on December 16, 2009
at 7:20 AM
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By: Meet:Mobility Podcast 37 – A Challenge for Netbooks in 2010 | Meet:Mobility on December 16, 2009
at 3:37 PM
you mentioned playing chess on the ipod touch.. if you want to see the killer web app for playing chess then you should check out chessclub.com, otherwise known as the ICC: the Internet Chess Club. This is by far the best online chess website..
By: john hechtlinger on December 16, 2009
at 4:36 PM
Hello Eric,
My first comments on your blog:
It is a vast topic and it is the reason, according to our professional domains, addictions…. each reader could answer about one point and open another discussion.
My point of view it will be a global discussion because, as you know, my job is around the embedded world. Mainly, we are in a “Big Digital Move” since “regular shrink” have allowed to “make commonplace” image, video, phone, internet …and other reality into “ONE” DIE. It was not possible in past. All these were on several boards (video board, memory extension board, mother board). It was reserved to the Computer. Now, (to be bit in contrast with your sentence) shrink allows in having Gbytes into ONE die, 400 MHz processors in common clock frequency, USB High speed, Ethernet, Wifi, bluetooth and more than 15 IPs into one die. “Shrunk laptop” is a outcome and not a initially a goal for the marketing. It is false to say progress is not the starting point. Just to come back to earth (joke), in past, there was in Apollo 13 less than the smaller mobile phone at electronic point of view. Now, to be close to our discussion, why was not it possible 5 or 6 past phone generation? And when you will answer about this question, you will answer about
OS move,
why will we able to have internet in phone, TV, car,… and mainly why digital electronic are in Eric’s life:
• Firefox, Safari, Chrome, Internet Explorer (mobile)
• Financial Times, New York Times, CNN, EE Times, The Register, Yahoo Finance, BBC Weather, Wikipedia, Amazon, Blogs, BBC iPlayer, Club Penguin (with my daughter;)–> (Flash 10)
• Microsoft Outlook, PowerPoint, Excel, Open Office
• WordPress, LinkedIn, Gmail, YouTube
• Skype, iTunes, iPhoto, iTunes app store (over 2 billion downloads!), Android market, Google docs,
• …
30 ~ 50 mm2 (in sum) to be able to translate our real world to a digital.
I will continue this discussion after some comments.
Kindly,
Stephan
By: StephanCadene on December 16, 2009
at 11:01 PM
Hi Stephan
I come from the embedded system world, Handling system from HW/SW boundary to all the way up to application has been my focus.
Coming back to discussion,
you are very right, it is vast topic to discuss, I thought of putting down few lines here.
To start with, I agree with Eric comments on convergence. It is not “If” but “How Soon” will be the question…
My views;
User expectations in today’s consumer and mobile world are exploding. Application from PC are migrating on these devices. It is evident and also suggested by different reports that consumer broadband consumption is constantly overtaking enterprise. Few source of data suggests consumer surpassed enterprise in 2005 with respect to broadband consumption.
Connectivity on these devices means opening the floodgates for all kind of PC applications to migrate onto homes & mobile devices. In addition to it, new applications are being developed by community around the world.
Also to share my own experience, Digital TV are being launched with internet connectivity. As a result, we are going to see TV supporting browsers, media streaming, Instant messaging in short -mid term and video chat, network games in mid – long term.
We also planned to do network chess game on STB.
Having said all above, this is the trends emerging but lot depends upon factors like
- available bandwidth, broadband adoption etc.
From device perspective. the real questions would be how device shall be designed for adoption of such applications on consumer device in the constraints of cost, cycle time and quality. In consumer & mobile is extremely sensitive issue. To give some jist of things; device not booting within acceptable few secs & rebooting due to some unknown reasons could be make or break for a device in market.
I will continue with this discussion…
Comments on how to achieve this can spawn new discussion threads.
Vineet
By: Vineet on December 17, 2009
at 11:07 AM
Hi Eric,
Do we continu our discussion in this topic?
By: StephanCadene on December 17, 2009
at 11:07 PM
Hi Stephan/All,
Yes, we should continue this topic as it is huge and impossible to address in such a brief format. I will consider how to constrain it more tightly into logical steps over the holidays. For now, I have another topic in the pipeline which will go up shortly.
BTW, I am looking for a way to play chess remotely (over a period of days) with my son when I travel. Ideas?
I agree that integration is also providing a driving force as project costs escalate and the volume to get profitable follows.
Personally, I am a bit pessimistic that PC apps can be simply migrated to consumer devices as is. There is just too many other interesting factors in play.
…gotta run…we got quite the snowstorm overnight!
By: eschorn on December 18, 2009
at 12:37 PM
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By: ScaleGamer » Blog Archive » Meet:Mobility Podcast 37 on December 19, 2009
at 3:06 AM
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By: Terpeelvepeah on March 4, 2010
at 4:44 PM